![]() The margin of victory for each race is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. The following table shows the incumbents who sought re-election but were defeated in the general election. These races were not rated as battlegrounds because they were likely to flip control. These are districts where a change in party was expected due to court-ordered redistricting that occurred earlier in the election cycle. This table shows what happened in each of the 23 House battleground races. The Republican Party's majority was slightly reduced in 2016, as Democrats picked up six seats. ![]() Republicans held 246 seats compared to Democrats' 186 seats, while three seats were vacant. Prior to the election, The Republican Party had the majority in the U.S. 7.1 Could Democrats have reclaimed the House?.3.1 Incumbents who sought higher office.The last two presidential elections saw gains of only eight and 24 seats for Democrats, while the last two midterms resulted in Republican gains of 13 and 64 seats. Presidential elections also tend to result in smaller changes to House partisan balance than midterms. House, while midterms have helped Republicans. In the past decade, presidential elections have led to Democratic gains in the U.S. Presidential election years lead to increased voter interest and turnout, which has an effect all the way down the ballot. The coinciding presidential election had a significant impact on the elections for U.S. As expected, the Republican Party easily held the chamber. If Democrats had won every one of those 37 races and lost no other seats, they would have just hit the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated 23 races as battlegrounds and an additional 14 as races to watch. In order to flip control of the chamber, the Democratic Party would have needed to pick up 30 seats. It was never likely that Democrats would retake the chamber however, double-digit gains in the House were predicted.Īlthough it was unlikely for Democrats to retake the House, the possibility had been discussed prior to the election. Republicans preserved their majority and only lost a net six seats, resulting in a 241-194 majority. Additionally, there were three special elections to fill the final two months of vacancies that were created during the 114th United States Congress.ĭespite losing several seats in the chamber, the Republican Party had a strong night in the House. States in the Deep South like Alabama will vote Trump, while the more liberal California will almost certainly return a vote for Biden.Elections to the U.S. According to a recent data from the CBS News Battleground Tracker 37 states are essentially guaranteed to vote for a particular candidate. How will the use of the Electoral College affect the election this time around?Īfter Clinton’s defeat in 2016 Team Biden appear to have been far more focused on picking up the votes required to win the Electoral College, and it can be seen in their campaigning strategy. But the data does suggest that, as was the case in 2016, more Americans will vote Democrat than will vote Republican. However this is just a projection and only accounts for around 96% of the electorate so there are still some voters who could easily break Republican on Election Day. In comparison, Donald Trump was given an average support of 46%. In a recent poll tracker produced by Real Clear Politics, Democratic candidate Joe Biden was polling at 50% nationwide. Trump defied the pollsters to beat Clinton but the margin he overcame on Election Day was less than it is this time around. Who is expected to win the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election?Īs was proved four years ago, attempting to predict the results of an election is a fool’s errand, but we can take some clues from how the 2016 race panned out. However a series of narrow wins for Trump in valuable states like Florida gave him enough Electoral College votesto secure a place in White House. The Democratic nominee therefore received roughly 2.9 million more votes, giving her a margin of 2.1% over her opponent. When the final vote count was returned Trump had received a total of 62,980,160 votes (46.1%), while Clinton had amassed 65,845,063 (48.2%). The quirks of the Electoral College system were exposed in 2016 when Donald Trump secured the presidency with an Electoral College majority, even as Hillary Clinton took a narrow lead in the popular vote - TIME November 1, 2020
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